The World Cup is almost upon us. I know, it feels weird saying that in November, but this World Cup is going to feel weird for a lot of reasons that I won’t get into here. Whether you’re watching, boycotting, or spending your bribes on some delicious Machbūs (that’s the national dish of Qatar, saved you a Google), the World Cup will happen, and one team will be c🌱rowned best in the world before Christmas.
The best bit of the World Cup, asid🎃e from all the football of course, is the predictions. The prediction game has been going on for decades with betting companies, but the late, great Paul the Octopus changed the game. Every tournament we now have all manner of animals picking their top teams and trying to become the new Paul. They always fail. But, as an animal myself, I shall not fall where others did. I’m going to use the power of Football Manager 23, the world’s most accurate football simulator, to predict the winner of the World Cup. And I’m going to be correct.
I’ve done this before: earlier this year I plugged the African Cu🅰p of Nations into Football Manager 22. I had great fun following Comoros’ fairytale debut tournament and was perplexed at why Mohammed Salah had been left out of the Egypt squad, but the simulator unfortunately got one crucial thing wrong. It predicted that Ivory Coast would win the competition, when 𝔍the title actually went to Senegal. But I trust in the process, and believe in my heart that Football Manager 23 can give us conclusive results.
As the tournament kicked off, England narrowly scraped past rivals Wales in the… *checks notes* rainy… Qatari climate. Harry Kane claimed the only goal of the tie, a shot from Jude Bellingham that deflected off the striker’s back. I’m not even joking. We then comfortably beat USA, with the wingers and wingbacks proving vital in getting the ball into the middle. Chilwell and Walker were selected as full backs in a back four, and Fiko Tomori got his chance on the big stage. I can’t see Southgate’s selection mirroring this, but it proved succe✅ssful in the early rounds of the competition. Oxlade-Chamberlain also got a surprise call up, but didn’t feature in any of the matches as he got injured. I told you it was an accurate simulation.
For our loyal US reade🐭rs, your guys smashed Iran 8-0, but a 1-0 loss to Wales thanks to a second minute Brennan Johnson goal ensured you didn’t make it out of the group. The only major surprise from the Group Stage was Argentina leaving the tournament thanks to consecutive 2-1 losses to Poland and group winners Mexico. Somewhat surprisingly, hosts Qatar weren’t the worst team in the tournament, as their single goal and 13 conceded put them ahead of Tunisia and level with Iran on goal difference. They did get two red cards in their three matches, though, which is impressive in its own right.
In the Last 16, favourites Brazil could only scrape past Uruguay on penalties, which was a sign of things to come. Croatia also 🅠knocked out Germany in a shock result. Brazil were the only non-European team in the Quarter Finals, with the likes of Denmark, Croatia, and Portugal making it surprisingly far. The favourites went out on penalties to Spain – despite Bo🐲bby Firmino (who made the squad in the simulation) not taking one. That may have been for the best after his miss against Derby in the League Cup, but Brazil still couldn’t do enough, with Raphinha the villain, sending his awful penalty straight down the middle, straight into Unai Simon’s arms.
This is also where England’s journey came to an end, losing in a tight 1-0 to reigning champions France. The European giants had clearly taken notes from Gareth Southgate, utilising a horrible five at the back formation with two defensive midfielders, N'Golo Kanté and Aurélien Tchouaméni. Mbappe feasted in France’s easy Group Stage games, and France breezed through to the Semi Finals without conceding a single goal.
France flowed past Croatia 5-0 in the Semi Final, but returned to their horrible back five formation for the final, where they took on Spain. Didier Deschamps’ Southgateball found further success, as France went back to back thanks to three set piece goals from Varane, Kimpembe, and Giroud, who was in for injured striker Karim Benzema. There was some luck involved – Kimpembe’s edge of the box header had an xG of 0.01 and only rolled in thanks to a horrendous goalkeeping error – but France won the tournament thanks to stellar defensive performances. Les Bleus didn’t concede a single go𒉰al all tournament, and Golden Boot winner Kylian Mbappe never looked like missing.
Luka Modric won player of the tournament as Croatia once again overperformed and the likes of England, Brazil, and Argentina drastically underperformed. Back in real life, England would hope to do better than the Quarter Finals after𝓰 recent tournament performances under Southgate, but we can take hope from the fact that Deschamps employed very conservative tactics not dissimilar to what Southgate will inevitably use – albeit probably with better personnel.
🌃There was no fairytale story here, no Comoros to root for. This was a tournament won by playing with 10 men behind the ball, and releasing it to the best player in the world so he can carry you to victory. It seems likely that something similar will happen in real-life Qatar this year. The days of🃏 Ronaldinho and Ronaldo showboating their way to trophies are long gone, tournaments will now be won by 0.01xG Presnel Kimpembe headers as sides rely on solid defences and pinpoint set pieces to be successful.